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China and Russia


begleitung

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New? Not new at all... They've been around for so long. While the Russians may be more unpredictable, I think the Chinese are quite predictable. The Russians are more likely to meddle with the affairs of other countries while the Chinese pursue a policy of non-interference in such affairs. In fact, the US is much more unpredictable and much more interventionist in its foreign policy approach than the Chinese.

 

Unless you're Taiwan, you probably don't need to feel threatened by China. The US may feel threatened but that's a different type of threat that they feel. The threat Taiwan faces is an existential one while the US just fears China taking over it as the world's biggest superpower.

 

Russia does pose a threat to Europe. As we see the global energy crisis unfold in recent weeks, we see the dependence of Europe on Russia for critical energy supplies, specifically Russian natural gas. While Russia would not cut off these supplies and essentially cripple the European economies, as Russia depends on these gas exports for government revenues, they can still this as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Europe.

 

Russia also poses a threat to democracies around the world. As we have seen in the 2016 US presidential elections, Russia seeks to undermine the democratic election process through targeted campaigns. Russia also funds terrorist organisations in the Middle East, supporting autocratic regimes. The Russian threat, in my view, is far greater than the Chinese threat to the rest of the world.

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Both countries have reason to be threatening. The key to whether they will remain so depends on how the USA reacts over the next few years, in my view.

 

Russia turned to the original "evil empire" after its first decades embracing communism when it morphed into the expanded Soviet Union. Yet for a few years during World War 2 it became the west's best friend (and virtual saviour) after Hitler declared war on Russia. Without Russia's fighting and great sacrifice in terms of manpower - 20-25 million dead compared to just over 400,000 American deaths, it is surely unlikely that the allies could have freed Europe from the Nazi thugs. But by permitting Russia and its Soviet Union to dominate Eastern Europe after the war as part of its wartime pact, the western powers had set up the conditions for the Cold War.

 

As Putin is only too well aware, the Soviets could not compete with the economies and the arms build up in the west. It collapsed to much rejoicing within Russia. But Putin is determined to restore Russia's position in the world. It seems certain he will continue to do all he can to reduce US world  influence.

 

When China also turned communist, the power brokers in Washington were horrified. After the world seemed set on a course of blowing itself to nuclear annihilation during the 1960s, the USA cosied up to Mao on the basis that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend." It then helped China develop from the depths of the Cultural Revolution which had all but destroyed the total fabric of the country.

 

Looked at in that light, China should be the USA's friend. But the Chinese, especially the leadership, has never been able to forget the "century of humiliation" when western powers led by the British, but including the USA, France and Germany, raped China's coastline and imposed their own settlements with their own laws. Nor can it forget the colonisation of much of the country by Japan. All this still dominates official thinking and a determination never again to be subservient to any other world power. With Xi's determination to ensure the success of his singular vision for the country, China now has the economic might to make it happen.

 

Against this, 19h century Russia showed itself to be an expansionist power and Putin seems set on continuing this course. But such expansion will probably be close to its own borders. China, on the other hand, was far too weak to be expansionist in military terms in the last century but is now using its huge economic muscle as a weapon through the Belt & Road initiative and shenanigans in the South China Sea. Both countries need watching and sensitive issues resolved by diplomacy where possible. In our part of the world. What is to happen re Taiwan will be of crucial importance.

Edited by InBangkok
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