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AMA Thread on technical analysis on a chart; Go


TndrHrt89

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4 hours ago, TndrHrt89 said:

Starting a Ask Me Anything on applying technical analysis to any chart. NASDAQ, Oil, Gold, Bitcoin, you name it. 

 

Not financial advice but will be informative and perhaps accurate. 

Wow thanks for starting this topic. Is forex chart inclusive?

Be cool, like a breeze...

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14 hours ago, Coolbriz said:

Wow thanks for starting this topic. Is forex chart inclusive?

 

yeah. technical analysis is commonly used to generate buy and sell ideas for forex. works best when used in combination with fundamental analysis of macro and micro economy factors. 

Edited by TndrHrt89
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1 hour ago, TndrHrt89 said:

 

yeah. technical analysis is commonly used to generate buy and sell ideas for forex. works best when used in combination with fundamental analysis of macro and micro economy factors. 

Previously, was advised that technical analysis should be used independent of fundamental analysis other than taking into consideration important economic news release that might cause choppy movement in market before and after the release. 

 

So for current context, do you advise to look at both whenever you read charts?

Be cool, like a breeze...

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1 hour ago, Coolbriz said:

Previously, was advised that technical analysis should be used independent of fundamental analysis other than taking into consideration important economic news release that might cause choppy movement in market before and after the release. 

 

So for current context, do you advise to look at both whenever you read charts?

 

Different strokes for different folks really. 

It also depends strongly on how long you plan to hold your trades, absolute dollar amount, distribution percentage of capital. 

 

There’s pure FA, pure TA, and mixed approaches. All of them can be profitable as long as an appropriate risk management strategy is in place. 

 

Re: I would advise finding out what works for you. It takes a good eye and a sharp mind the massive types of ‘news’ to analyze. Which ever way you end up with, I would suggest clearly categorizing the reason for putting on a trade I.e. journaling. Especially for FA and news, you’ll be able to track the  developments of how something has or has not turned out as you expected, and the resultant effect on the market. 

 

A note here that what is most dangerous is changing the plan without adequate consideration. I.e. buying a technically beautiful chart with 50% of the portfolio (with an appropriate stop loss of 2% of capital), but after it drops, holding on to a the losing (and not to mentioned now badly risk managed) trade due to fundamentals.

 

it is common understanding that the market can remain irrational longer than any person can remain liquid. 

Edited by TndrHrt89
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9 hours ago, TndrHrt89 said:

 

Different strokes for different folks really. 

It also depends strongly on how long you plan to hold your trades, absolute dollar amount, distribution percentage of capital. 

 

There’s pure FA, pure TA, and mixed approaches. All of them can be profitable as long as an appropriate risk management strategy is in place. 

 

Re: I would advise finding out what works for you. It takes a good eye and a sharp mind the massive types of ‘news’ to analyze. Which ever way you end up with, I would suggest clearly categorizing the reason for putting on a trade I.e. journaling. Especially for FA and news, you’ll be able to track the  developments of how something has or has not turned out as you expected, and the resultant effect on the market. 

 

A note here that what is most dangerous is changing the plan without adequate consideration. I.e. buying a technically beautiful chart with 50% of the portfolio (with an appropriate stop loss of 2% of capital), but after it drops, holding on to a the losing (and not to mentioned now badly risk managed) trade due to fundamentals.

 

it is common understanding that the market can remain irrational longer than any person can remain liquid. 

Thanks for the advice!

Be cool, like a breeze...

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  • 5 weeks later...
On 10/17/2018 at 7:18 PM, keyboard said:

With the mid-term election coming on 6th Nov (democrats will take over?) and Fed likely raising another rate in Dec, how does the technical side of things look for both the DOW and SGX in the coming months?

 

I dont trade indexes so I’m not of any help here. I’ve found each market has nuances the difference between knowing these and not knowing these can and will be the difference between a winning and a losing trade. 

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sure, i'll do one.

Capture.thumb.PNG.4859263b0e56d95e607bdf553a2f9b3e.PNG

 

the white lines at $3.75 and $2.75 denote the meat of the price action with somewhere about $3.25 being a pivotal point (it coincides with the valley on the orange and blue 'volume by price' measurement seen on the right side of the scale). you could look up the concept of ranges and the range equilibrium if you like to find out more.

briefly, there was:

  1. an upward deviation in 2008,

  2. downward deviation in 2009,

  3. consolidation below the equilibrium of the range up to late 2012.

  4. a breakout of consolidation followed by a retest of the EQ in early 2013.

  5. expansionary market up to 2015 after which it confirmed the first of later three lower highs.

  6. the three lower highs also coincided with consolidation around the range high of $3.75 

  7. Oct, Nov, Dec 2017 were 3 candles attempted to reach above but failed to close above the range high.

  8. consolidation which culminated in the weakness of Q4 2017 was followed an expansionary market phase, now in the downward direction. range high is confirmed as resistance.

 

i'd watch for a 98 point harmonic move to play out from the confirmation of $3.75 as resistance and assess that we'll see $2.75 before the 4th quarter of next year.

long-term risk managed positions look palatable at the $2.71 to $2.56 levels.

 

weakness, a break below, or worse, a confirmation of $2.56 as resistance and i'd be very concerned as to what is up with not only Singtel but the local and global economies.

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...
On 12/6/2018 at 3:11 PM, TndrHrt89 said:

is it just me or did the Singtel chart get removed...

 

sorry, it was just me (mobiles don't show pictures).


An update for anyone following. 

~date of analysis: 22/11/18.

Prices:

22 Nov 2018 3.12 3.14 3.09 3.10

 

~currently date: 19/12/18

19 Dec 2018 2.95 2.99 2.95 2.97

 

Chart:

capture.part2.thumb.png.debc1e7812f1ae0b4811ce4628de87ae.png

*data drawn from Yahoo finance and trading view.

 

the story has yet to conclude for this particular piece. stay tuned for $2.75! :lol:

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  • 3 weeks later...
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