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Taiwan, one of the unresolved issues in East Asia...


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On 4/28/2022 at 8:20 AM, Why? said:

You only buy something which is not yours.  If it is already yours, you need not buy.  They teach that in Kindergarten School.

 

The error made here is that you only listen and look to one side but ignore the other.

You don't look whether the other claims are valid.

 

The Taiwan issue is much too complex that you can come to one single conclusion.

 

That China twists facts can be seen in the South China Sea issue.

The Courts have rejected any "historical" claims of China to this region.

Despite that China is ignoring the judgment though it is a member of the Convention.

 

Were will it lead to when countries don't follow a rules based system?

 

Malaysia has also accepted the Pedra Branca ruling of the same court.

 

This is why the world has set up these Courts to decide on issues.

Entering the convention on the Seas and then pulling out because you don't like the judgment?

Is that how it works?

No!

 

Edited by singalion
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On Taiwan:

 

Taiwan can only be resolved peacefully.

 

It is intertwined also to a political system conflict.

 

Taiwan does not intend to live under the current system of Mainland China.

And after the events and breaking of the agreed laws by China regarding Hong Kong surely Taiwan is less keen to integrate into China (leaving away all the dispute whether Taiwan is separate or not etc)

PRC China has to blame itself also for being uncompromising in their views and not in any way moving towards the Taiwanese to accommodate them.

 

If PRC gave Taiwan self governance with guarantees, I assume Taiwan would already be a part of China.

 

It takes two to tango... as the saying goes...

 

 

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On 4/28/2022 at 8:16 AM, Steve5380 said:

 

It may not be taught in Kindergarten,  but even Kindergarten kids know that you don't own things automatically, but if they are not your own body you have to make them or buy them.  There are no records that mainland China BOUGHT Taiwan.  Neither did it MAKE Taiwan.  So they don't have any legal ownership if it.  

That is a ridiculously facile assumption made, I presume, with your usual brand of wit. There are no records that the United States was made by its American inhabitants nor that, apart from those parts involved in the Louisiana Purchase and Alaska (and perhaps other small parts I am not aware of), that it was bought. Therefore you presume that Americans have no legal rights to most of the land we know of as the United States.

 

On 4/27/2022 at 10:13 AM, Ryanlkz said:

Taiwan founded at 1912 but China is 1949, how Taiwan is legitimate child for China?

 

The fact that a country changes its official name is no reason whatever for people even to think that it has become a totally new country. China in 1949 was precisely the same land mass that had existed when Imperial rule ended, later when Chiang fled to Formosa and today. Nothing can change that. Names of countries are not static and frequently change when colonial or corrupt governments are booted out. Ghana was named the Gold Coast for hundreds of years. The land mass did not change with the change of name. Myanmar was formerly Burma. The land mass did not change. 3 years ago Macedonia becme North Macedonia. No change in land mass. 

 

On 4/27/2022 at 1:45 PM, Why? said:

China would not be better off today had the 1989 Tiananmen Square protesters been successful and toppled the communist authorities

 

The above is LKY said one.

 

Fast foward 2022.  History already has judged for itself.  America is pissed of China's success. 

 

I do not know what LKY means. But as far as the statement in large bold letters is concerned, it is not true! The students who congregated in Tiananmen Square in 1989 never intended a change in government nor did they envisage what a new government would look like. Their objectives were reforming the existing system to root out corruption and get rid of some of the old guard.

 

When the twice purged Deng Xiao-ping finally became party leader, he was well aware that the system needed reform. So he placed two younger reformers in key positions - Hu Yao-bang as General Secretary and Zhao Xi-yang as Prime Minister. They fought bitterly with the old guard who remained loyal to Mao and his mad schemes for running the country. Hu in particular became very popular especially amongst students who saw him as a beacon of hope with his more liberal ideas. But Hu had been forced to resign two years earlier. Zhao was promoted to his position but the old guard managed to get the ultra conservative Li Peng appointed as Prime Minister. The hard liners were again in control.

 

The Tiananmen Sqare protests actually started in mid-April. About 100,000 students congregated in the Square to protest the lack of respect being given by the government at the funeral of the late Premier Hu. The old guard were shocked at the numbers. But in the days following the funeral the students drifted away. At one time only 1,000 were left. Much worse for the hardliners was that demonstrations surrounding Hu's funeral had also started in some other parts of the country. The Square started filling up again. When the Soviet Union's Mikhail Gorbachev arrived on a state visit, he could not be welcomed at the Great Hall of the People on the west side of Tiananmen Square because of the continuing demonstrations. This was a major loss of face for the government. In May, when Zhao was out of China for an official trip, the army was ordered to the outskirts of Beijing.

 

With the demonstrators now not prepared to move, Zhao knew the likely result. One evening in late May, he walked in to the Square and with tears in his eyes begged the student leaders to leave. Zhao was soon dismissed from the government and spent the remainder of his life under house arrest, although his autobiography was eventually smuggled out of China and published in Hong Kong. The rest is history.

 

So the protestors did not seek a change in government - merely a reform of the communist government and an end to corruption.

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On 4/28/2022 at 12:12 PM, singalion said:

That China twists facts can be seen in the South China Sea issue.

The Courts have rejected any "historical" claims of China to this region.

Despite that China is ignoring the judgment though it is a member of the Convention.

The same can also be said about the Chinese attitude towards Tibet and Xinjiang. Take Xinjiang, or 新疆, in Chinese, its very name suggests that it is "new territory", which alludes to the fact that it wasn't originally Chinese to begin with. Yet, China insists that it is theirs, and continues to subjugate the people there, who are not Han Chinese. The same can be said about Tibet, with the Central government literally shipping in millions of Han Chinese from the surrounding provinces to "dilute" the Tibetans. Anyone who has been to Lhasa will be able to see the "Han Chinese" part of the city that has been "developed", as well as the native Tibetan quarter than is rapidly being eroded away.

 

Who would trust the Chinese government and their "guarantees" for autonomy? Look at Xinjiang and Tibet! They are autonomous regions according to the Central Government in Beijing, but totally repressed. Take a look at how the PRC is backtracking on their promises in HK! No wonder why Taiwan refuses to "回歸祖國的懷抱" as the PRC would put it, because it will be more like "歸順中央的壓破"!

 

The PRC knows that they can play the numbers game. They have a much larger population of more than a billion to counter the regions that they want to subjugate. They also have an economy that is far larger. All it needs to do, is to offer their own citizens free access to those places, and there will be millions moving there in search of economic opportunities.

 

Of course, the majority of Han Chinese in China do not understand what all this furor is about. They have been brought up and indoctrinated by a system that looks at EVERYTHING through the lens of 中國, the Middle Kingdom, the centre of EVERYTHING. To them, Tibetans and the Uighurs should be grateful for the "economic development" that Beijing has brought to those regions. But at what cost? Wiping out the non-Han cultures and beliefs? Where the philosophy of life does not revolve around the Central Government in Beijing? That is why the Chinese in the Mainland also will not understand Taiwan. To them, Taiwan "returning" to China would only enhance their economic prospects. However, they fail to see that Taiwan has become one of the leading lights of liberal democracy in Asia. The Taiwanese want self-determination and a voice in the government - things that the mainlanders have never been exposed to or understand.

 

Before anyone accuses me of being an outsider, born in a foreign country, and educated in the West. Let me say that I have lived and worked in China (PRC), and have many mainland and Taiwanese friends and acquaintances. I also have been to Taiwan as a student (student exchange) and work, and have seen the country transform from an authoritarian dictatorship, to a liberal democracy; moving from martial law to a free society.

Edited by sgmaven

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I think we all have to remember that many countries have expanded their territories over the centuries. 2 millennia ago China was merely seven kingdoms that had been unified by the first Emperor. It was a tiny fraction of the size it is today. Should that territory be the only one considered as today's China?

 

Tibet has been treated dreadfully by China but for centuries there has been an uneasy relationship between the mainland and Tibet, with China not always the aggressor. In the 7th century Tibet conquered what we now generally know as Qinghai, Gansu and Xinjiang. In the following century Tibet ruled much of central Asia. A little later the Angkor Empire had expanded to rule much of today's Thailand and part of southern China. Whether we like it or not, XInjiang became part of the Q'ing Dynasty in the 18th century. At the start of that same century, there was no United Kingdom. There were only the separate countries of England, Wales and Scotland. In 1707 all three merged largely because of continuing conquest by England as the strongest power.. Even today, Scotland retains its own legal system, its own education system and its own religion. Does that mean that the United Kingdom is not a legitimate country?

 

If you go far enough back, Taiwan should be ruled by the original Taiwan indigenous tribes who started to inhabit the island around 6,000 years ago and of which many descendants still live on the island. For a time it was ruled by the Dutch and the Spanish before being annexed by the Chinese Emperor in 1683. Ironically it was in the same decade that many Hakka Chinese first arrived to take up residence on the island of Hong Kong. Is there much difference between the island of Hong Kong (but not the areas of Kowloon and the New territories) and the island of Taiwan - apart from size?

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Empires rise and wane. Just because an empire used to rule over a vassal at some stage in history doesn't give a country reason to claim another territory. Korea and Japan used to be vassals of Imperial China at some stage in history, but no one talks about these countries as part of China.

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On 4/29/2022 at 3:01 AM, sgmaven said:

Empires rise and wane. Just because an empire used to rule over a vassal at some stage in history doesn't give a country reason to claim another territory. Korea and Japan used to be vassals of Imperial China at some stage in history, but no one talks about these countries as part of China.

True, but there are different examples that imply the opposite. For example, what it Louisiana or Alaska decided they wanted to return to the countries which sold them to the USA? Or the Hawaiian Islands which were annexed by the USA decided they wanted to return to being a monarchy?

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On 4/29/2022 at 2:21 PM, InBangkok said:

True, but there are different examples that imply the opposite. For example, what it Louisiana or Alaska decided they wanted to return to the countries which sold them to the USA? Or the Hawaiian Islands which were annexed by the USA decided they wanted to return to being a monarchy?

 

On 4/29/2022 at 4:01 AM, sgmaven said:

Empires rise and wane. Just because an empire used to rule over a vassal at some stage in history doesn't give a country reason to claim another territory. Korea and Japan used to be vassals of Imperial China at some stage in history, but no one talks about these countries as part of China.

 

Lately, there was the new word creation of a multipolar world.

 

I personally don't think China will ever reach the level that had in the Han Dynasty or Ming Dynasty.

The rest of the world is growing also in importance. While China might have a plan to outperform the US, researchers, political strategists are not certain that this will come with more political impact.

 

And we never know what happens within China.

Tiananmen can always happen again.

Just wait for a bubble to burst...

 

20 - 15 years ago everyone was excited about BRICS, but look what happened...

India is not getting off much due to internal struggles and protectionism, Brazil has not achieved more status or recognition, economically trailing behind.

South Africa is run by corruption, yes maybe the economic power house of Africa but at what scale?

Russia as we see in a different thread is stuck in 1918 mindset and overestimating its real power, more on focus with nationalism than with developing the economy to a power.

While China has developed but recently other countries are closing their shores and getting more restraint, when it comes to China.

 

There are always experts who will come up with interesting books to read but more or less most is like fortune telling.

 

People in China are becoming more and more educated, I m not sure they really would want to be curtailed as they are currently. As I said, it doesn't need much for a bubble to burst and the CCP probably may not get such eruptions in control. From the Eastern European change we have seen how fast things can be swept away.

There might be a Chinese version of Gorbachev haha.

 

 

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On 4/29/2022 at 2:50 PM, singalion said:

People in China are becoming more and more educated, I m not sure they really would want to be curtailed as they are currently. As I said, it doesn't need much for a bubble to burst and the CCP probably may not get such eruptions in control. From the Eastern European change we have seen how fast things can be swept away.

There might be a Chinese version of Gorbachev haha.

For every single Chinese mainlander who is more educated, there are still many who buy into the rhetoric presented by the Central Government in Beijing. And Beijing knows how to incite the masses. I was living in China during the 60th anniversary of the end of WW2, and local media was so full of vitriol against what the Japanese did in WW2 (eg. Rape of Nanjing, Unit 731, etc.), that the masses actually started to riot. We are almost 20 years beyond that day, but I still know Chinese who refuse to visit Japan for that same reason.

 

Of course, some people speculate that the Chinese are compliant with the Central Government, because their economic livelihoods have improved markedly in recent years. Frankly, most people don't really think of philosophical ideas like freedom, but rather whether they can afford the latest iPhone or designer handbag (once they have moved beyond putting food on the table and having a roof over their heads). Coupled with the way Beijing controls media and even social media, it is very easy for them to stir the people in the same name of Nationalism as in Russia.

 

I am not sure if you are as familiar with the Chinese social media scene, as you are with the likes of Facebook, Tiktok, Instagram and YouTube. But netizens in China are famous for calling out people, who they perceive as not toeing the line of the government. Look at the celebrities who got into trouble by visiting Japan, etc. For most, they have never known a system outside that of the PRC, and think that it is almost "perfect". To even criticize the system, even if it was founded on real issues, is tantamount to being anti-China.

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What would happen if now America and other world powers recognize Taiwan as an independent country and establish diplomatic relations with it?  How would China react and what could it do?

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On 4/30/2022 at 1:45 AM, Steve5380 said:

What would happen if now America and other world powers recognize Taiwan as an independent country and establish diplomatic relations with it?  How would China react and what could it do?

China would probably threaten to cut ties with the countries that recognise Taiwan as a separate independent country. The Central Government would also probably state that it is a Chinese matter, and no other parties should get involved.

 

Considering how intertwined China's economy is with the rest of the world, cutting ties would definitely hit both sides hard.

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Guest You are fucked
On 4/30/2022 at 1:45 AM, Steve5380 said:

What would happen if now America and other world powers recognize Taiwan as an independent country and establish diplomatic relations with it?  How would China react and what could it do?

America would be fucked for sure.  Unlike Europe which support Ukraine, Asia will not recognise Taiwan as independent sovereign state if they want to maintain good relationships with China.  Once China sanctioned you, you are fucked economically. 

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On 4/29/2022 at 1:14 PM, Guest You are fucked said:

America would be fucked for sure.  Unlike Europe which support Ukraine, Asia will not recognise Taiwan as independent sovereign state if they want to maintain good relationships with China.  Once China sanctioned you, you are fucked economically. 

 

No, you are fucked.  If China cut ties with countries that recognize Taiwan, it will hurt itself as much or more as these countries.  And it is possible that if major powers change their policies and recognize Taiwan,  Japan, an Asian country, would do the same.  Singapore might not, put it is not a major player here.

 

 

On 4/29/2022 at 12:53 PM, sgmaven said:

China would probably threaten to cut ties with the countries that recognise Taiwan as a separate independent country. The Central Government would also probably state that it is a Chinese matter, and no other parties should get involved.

 

Considering how intertwined China's economy is with the rest of the world, cutting ties would definitely hit both sides hard.

 

Russia also has stated that its current war is a Russian matter,  but the whole NATO is involved.

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On 4/30/2022 at 3:00 AM, Steve5380 said:

Russia also has stated that its current war is a Russian matter,  but the whole NATO is involved.

Russia is much less important on the world economic stage than China is. If China tried the same with Taiwan, as Russia did with the Ukraine, it would be really problematic to sanction the PRC. The world is too dependent on what China manufactures, far more than how Europe is reliant on Russian gas. Sure, you can try to say that the US and its allies will look for alternative supply, but such manufacturing capacity does not happen overnight, and will take time to develop.

 

Meanwhile, an invasion of Taiwan will mean that the world of advanced computing will be in peril. Most of the advanced chips in the world, are either manufactured in Taiwan by TSMC. All the electronics companies who are FAB-less will probably not be able to produce any of their products in the advent of a war in Taiwan. Say goodbye then to our mobile phones, since most of the more advanced phones use chips from FAB-less companies like MediaTek (Taiwanese) or Qualcomm. Also say goodbye to whatever "smart" devices you can think of, even our cars. That is on the civilian front, but much of global military technology is dependent on what the Taiwanese produce in terms of semiconductors.

 

Not sure how long people so dependent on things like cars and phones will be able to hold out. Note that the countries who are likely to oppose China, should they invade Taiwan, are mainly democracies. The governments would also need to keep track of voter sentiment. It is quite similar to why the EU doesn't just ban Russian gas and oil, the economic repercussions would be too great for the people at home.

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On 4/29/2022 at 6:41 PM, sgmaven said:

Russia is much less important on the world economic stage than China is. If China tried the same with Taiwan, as Russia did with the Ukraine, it would be really problematic to sanction the PRC. The world is too dependent on what China manufactures, far more than how Europe is reliant on Russian gas. Sure, you can try to say that the US and its allies will look for alternative supply, but such manufacturing capacity does not happen overnight, and will take time to develop.

 

Meanwhile, an invasion of Taiwan will mean that the world of advanced computing will be in peril. Most of the advanced chips in the world, are either manufactured in Taiwan by TSMC. All the electronics companies who are FAB-less will probably not be able to produce any of their products in the advent of a war in Taiwan. Say goodbye then to our mobile phones, since most of the more advanced phones use chips from FAB-less companies like MediaTek (Taiwanese) or Qualcomm. Also say goodbye to whatever "smart" devices you can think of, even our cars. That is on the civilian front, but much of global military technology is dependent on what the Taiwanese produce in terms of semiconductors.

 

Not sure how long people so dependent on things like cars and phones will be able to hold out. Note that the countries who are likely to oppose China, should they invade Taiwan, are mainly democracies. The governments would also need to keep track of voter sentiment. It is quite similar to why the EU doesn't just ban Russian gas and oil, the economic repercussions would be too great for the people at home.

 

China is an enormous source of consumer products.  But if there is a war, these products take second stage.  We in the US can spend some time without buying new cellphones, TVs, laptops, automobiles.  America is well aware of its dependence of raw materials from China.  We are ramping up the production of steel,  seeking alternative sources for many other products.  Although TSMC is the largest source of advanced semiconductors in the world, it can be partially replaced,  and it is not in China but in Taiwan.  Intel is already investing tens of billions in new manufacturing facilities, although this takes time.  But we don't have a war with China today.  Even in modern democracies the populations should be able to tighten their belts if there is a war or the threat of one.  Although Americans are very spoiled.  Some social shocks already happened with the shutdowns caused by the pandemic, and the country has survived. 

 

This is one positive thing about the Ukraine war:  America is accepting a higher priority in becoming more independent from foreign resources.  Maybe one day we don't need to import anything from China,  if the people are smart to choose the right government. 

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On 4/30/2022 at 1:45 AM, Steve5380 said:

What would happen if now America and other world powers recognize Taiwan as an independent country and establish diplomatic relations with it? 

What would happen, according to your wish, would not happen at all.  The world recognised China will eventually, or even sooner, became the world super-power.  Greenback will fail to become the major international currency.  The America's sanctioning and seizing of Russian's assets,  in the wake of war, has put USA under scrutiny for not being a trusted partner to place all your precious assets.   The pandemic, the war in Russia, god knows for how long, will not only destroy Europe but also America businesses.  America has lost a crucial Russia   China has gained one. To survive, many people will look East for Hope and tightened their friendship with THE GREAT CHINA.  Taiwan will voluntarily submit to its motherland in order to survive.  America's voices in this part of the region, by then, is just a whimper in the jungle of wilderness.

 

I know it hurts your nationalistic feelings, but it is a reality you will face in your lifetime.  Remember to pop you sleeping pill, you are going to need it later.

Edited by Why?
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What would happen if, by request of Taiwan,  America installs a military base in Taiwan?  If this is legitimate and could happen,  would then China be able to invade Taiwan without attacking American forces and therefore precipitate a war?


 

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On 4/30/2022 at 11:09 AM, Steve5380 said:

What would happen if, by request of Taiwan,  America installs a military base in Taiwan?  If this is legitimate and could happen,  would then China be able to invade Taiwan without attacking American forces and therefore precipitate a war?


 

You must have a long day today and over imagining things, but don't you worry about it, think about how America should save its own ass in this trying time. 

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On 4/30/2022 at 7:52 AM, Steve5380 said:

America is accepting a higher priority in becoming more independent from foreign resources.  Maybe one day we don't need to import anything from China,  if the people are smart to choose the right government. 

You forget that China owns more than US$1 trillion of US debt. If it decides to flood the market with those debt instruments, the US will be very badly affected. Of course China will be not be unscathed - but the Chinese government always looks to the much onger term whereas governments in the west are inevitably short-termism due to elections having to be held every 4 or 5 years.

 

Everyone should read the masterful analysis of historical forces by Paul Kennedy "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers from 1500 to 2000." All great powers fail. It is a fact of history. Three centuries ago China was the greatest power in the world. It fell. The same was true of other Empires like the British, Hapsburg, Russian, Ottoman, German and goodness knows how many more. China is on the rise again whether we like it or not. The USA will eventually fall as the world's greatest power. That is inevitable.

 

On 4/30/2022 at 10:09 AM, Steve5380 said:

What would happen if, by request of Taiwan,  America installs a military base in Taiwan?  If this is legitimate and could happen,  would then China be able to invade Taiwan without attacking American forces and therefore precipitate a war?

What hallucinogenic are you using LOL? If Taiwan requested a military base on the island, the USA would refuse - plain and simple. The USA has backed the one-China principle for more than 50 years. Plain and simple.

Edited by InBangkok
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On 4/30/2022 at 11:28 AM, InBangkok said:

What hallucinogenic are you using LOL? If Taiwan requested a military base on the island, the USA would refuse - plain and simple. The USA has backed the one-China principle for more than 50 years. Plain and simple.

He is already advanced in years and what puzzles me was, how he knew so little about America's stand on Taiwan.  If this basic fact is not established into his aged mind, all future discussion about Taiwan/America thing is useless. 

Edited by Why?
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One thing I have learned about America - more than many countries I have visited - is that if you discount those who live on the East and West Coasts and in some other cosmopolitan cities like Chicago, the majority of citizens know almost nothing about the Taiwan issue other than what their leaders tell them. I have good friends who came from my native country but have lived in Louisville, Kentucky for more than 30 years. I visit them frequently. They have a circle of wonderful, generous, interesting friends. Yet of these more than half are interested only in things that happen about 100 miles radius from Kentucky. And one quarter have no passports. Their knowledge of the detail of world affairs is, being charitable, extremely limited. As a well-travelled man, @Steve5380 is surely one of the more enlightened ones.

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On 4/29/2022 at 10:38 PM, Why? said:

He is already advanced in years and what puzzles me was, how he knew so little about America's stand on Taiwan.  If this basic fact is not established into his aged mind, all future discussion about Taiwan/America thing is useless. 

 

Since what you write is usually the diametrically opposite of reality,  thank you for praising my knowledge of the US-Taiwan relationship.

 

America accepted the one-China principle of the PRC conditioned to the preservation of peace between the PRC and Taiwan.  But there is no law of nature that dictates that this principle has to stand.  It is simply a concession of good will.   If the PRC is threatening with violence against Taiwan,  then the US is perfectly justified to ADD to the principle of one-China the principle of one-Taiwan,  ( calling the island "Taiwan" instead of "ROC" ) by ADDING diplomatic relations with Taiwan.   IF THEN the PRC breaks relations with the US...  well... this will be their problem.   If the PRC is willing to go against the wishes of the US  (and a lot of other countries),  then the US should be willing to go against the wishes of the PRC.  Period.

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On 4/29/2022 at 10:48 PM, InBangkok said:

One thing I have learned about America - more than many countries I have visited - is that if you discount those who live on the East and West Coasts and in some other cosmopolitan cities like Chicago, the majority of citizens know almost nothing about the Taiwan issue other than what their leaders tell them. I have good friends who came from my native country but have lived in Louisville, Kentucky for more than 30 years. I visit them frequently. They have a circle of wonderful, generous, interesting friends. Yet of these more than half are interested only in things that happen about 100 miles radius from Kentucky. And one quarter have no passports. Their knowledge of the detail of world affairs is, being charitable, extremely limited. As a well-travelled man, @Steve5380 is surely one of the more enlightened ones.

 

You are right.  My late brother-in-law,  who recently passed away at 99 years of age,  was a well educated and cultivated man, an electrical engineer interested in literature, music,  a big fan of opera. But his view of this world was this:  there is America,  and there is the rest of the world.  He had perfect dominion of English, but spoke no other language.  "There was no need".  In his whole life ne NEVER left America and visited another country.  Living in Miami,  where more people speak Spanish than English, he had no interest in learning this "foreign" language.   The typical American nearsightedness.

 

But there surely are many, many more Chinese who have never left their country, and only speak their native language.  

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On 4/30/2022 at 11:50 AM, Steve5380 said:

 

Since what you write is usually the diametrically opposite of reality,  thank you for praising my knowledge of the US-Taiwan relationship.

 

America accepted the one-China principle of the PRC conditioned to the preservation of peace between the PRC and Taiwan.  But there is no law of nature that dictates that this principle has to stand.  It is simply a concession of good will.

China will not provoke Taiwan unless America try to provoke China.  China has basic principle on when it will attack Taiwan, one of those if Taiwan declared independence or America's weaponry interference are the main reasons.  China is self-sufficient, militarily capable and thus do not need America to shower it with Goodwill (or lack of). The problem with Taiwan, and with America, cannot always be fully aligned with each other due to their 5-yearly election.  If either one president is pro or anti to the other country, there is no need for China to worry about reunification with Taiwan, by force, it will just come naturally in a matter of time.  

Edited by Why?
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Posted (edited)
On 4/29/2022 at 4:06 PM, sgmaven said:

For every single Chinese mainlander who is more educated, there are still many who buy into the rhetoric presented by the Central Government in Beijing. And Beijing knows how to incite the masses. I was living in China during the 60th anniversary of the end of WW2, and local media was so full of vitriol against what the Japanese did in WW2 (eg. Rape of Nanjing, Unit 731, etc.), that the masses actually started to riot. We are almost 20 years beyond that day, but I still know Chinese who refuse to visit Japan for that same reason.

 

Of course, some people speculate that the Chinese are compliant with the Central Government, because their economic livelihoods have improved markedly in recent years. Frankly, most people don't really think of philosophical ideas like freedom, but rather whether they can afford the latest iPhone or designer handbag (once they have moved beyond putting food on the table and having a roof over their heads). Coupled with the way Beijing controls media and even social media, it is very easy for them to stir the people in the same name of Nationalism as in Russia.

 

I am not sure if you are as familiar with the Chinese social media scene, as you are with the likes of Facebook, Tiktok, Instagram and YouTube. But netizens in China are famous for calling out people, who they perceive as not toeing the line of the government. Look at the celebrities who got into trouble by visiting Japan, etc. For most, they have never known a system outside that of the PRC, and think that it is almost "perfect". To even criticize the system, even if it was founded on real issues, is tantamount to being anti-China.

 

You are right to the point of people who don't have the means to do their own checks.

It starts already with language.

 

How many Chinese can converse or comprehend sufficiently English, French, German etc to read non local news.

 

Those more educated, can do and don't tell me people don't know how to circumvent the government blocks. ...

(Hint: porn access). haha.

 

If you talk to educated people, their view on China is mostly very different and more critical on what is happening in China.

 

Also, did you ever note that most Chinese people who even accidentally started working in the West (even Singapore) don't have much impulse to return back to their country? Why?

 

Actually, the West is complacent in not putting up more of their media in Mandarin.

If they had been smarter, they would have started to invest in publishing Mandarin sites of their media to better counter the Chinese propaganda.

 

I have been to China often, but the last years I avoid the country due to the danger of getting arrested for no apparent reason as a punishment by the Government against Foreign Diplomatic or foreign government measures, just look at these poor 5 Canadian fellows who ended up in jail due to the Huawei saga (Meng Wanzhou). (One day after her case was resolved all Canadians were released in China (strange isn't it). Since this is happening much too often lately, I avoid the country by all means.

 

On the social media: you have these "collaborationist" everywhere even in Western European countries.

 

Yes, I am aware how China uses nationalist means to incite their own people but as I said, such manipulations can quickly also turn against the government in backlash.

 

In the next Tiananmen incident, the military may not support the government, who will know...

 

Don't forget that people with more wealth and climbing the social ladder also become more critical on government etc.

 

 

Edited by singalion
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Unfortunately, being well-educated and exposed to the West doesn't guarantee that the person becomes more "liberal" in thought. I know a guy from China, who is currently working in Singapore, has a PhD (well-educated) and even post-doc-ed in Norway (the West). He is usually a well-mannered and mild-mannered person. Yet, he feels so strongly against the Japanese that he refuses to visit Japan. No doubt, due to years of indoctrination in China.

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On 4/30/2022 at 8:52 AM, Steve5380 said:

Intel is already investing tens of billions in new manufacturing facilities,

 

Are you aware that most of these factories are constructed in Europe?

 

On 4/30/2022 at 8:52 AM, Steve5380 said:

 

China is an enormous source of consumer products.  But if there is a war, these products take second stage.  We in the US can spend some time without buying new cellphones, TVs, laptops, automobiles.  America is well aware of its dependence of raw materials from China.  We are ramping up the production of steel,  seeking alternative sources for many other products.  Although TSMC is the largest source of advanced semiconductors in the world, it can be partially replaced,  and it is not in China but in Taiwan.  Intel is already investing tens of billions in new manufacturing facilities, although this takes time.  But we don't have a war with China today.  Even in modern democracies the populations should be able to tighten their belts if there is a war or the threat of one.  Although Americans are very spoiled.  Some social shocks already happened with the shutdowns caused by the pandemic, and the country has survived. 

 

This is one positive thing about the Ukraine war:  America is accepting a higher priority in becoming more independent from foreign resources.  Maybe one day we don't need to import anything from China,  if the people are smart to choose the right government. 

 

The US has become much too reliant on China's manufacturing.

 

Most European companies acted smarter.

 

There has been a drive for the past 5 years by the European Commission to identity products, that seem to be national necessities and has shifted such manufacturing back to Europe or reducing reliance on foreign imports. Most key industries are covered by this new European program.

Unfortunately, Trump was to "dumb" to identify this and just hit out on China with his import tariffs instead of really taking a focus to verify what key industries should have a base in the US and act on it with programs.

It were the Europeans who with their own programs taught the current US administration to take focus on this issue or reliance on foreign manufacturing.

 

There only are some natural minerals which China seems to have most of.

 

Note also the shift of manufacturing out of China into other parts of South East Asia. Vietnam has profited much of this shift, Thailand and Indonesia on a lower scale.

 

Airbus can still manufacture their planes without China as most other producers also.

 

Did you know that 80% (or more) of Heinz Ketchup tomato base comes from the Uighur region in China?

 

The shift of manufacturing out of the US was one of the biggest mistakes that the US committed. This happens if "profits" and money is everything.

 

 

 

 

 

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On 4/30/2022 at 1:44 PM, sgmaven said:

Unfortunately, being well-educated and exposed to the West doesn't guarantee that the person becomes more "liberal" in thought. I know a guy from China, who is currently working in Singapore, has a PhD (well-educated) and even post-doc-ed in Norway (the West). He is usually a well-mannered and mild-mannered person. Yet, he feels so strongly against the Japanese that he refuses to visit Japan. No doubt, due to years of indoctrination in China.

 

Sure you will always find such people...

There are also Americans who did not travel to certain parts of Eastern Europe the past 15 years because they thought it is still under Soviet control. haha

 

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On 4/30/2022 at 8:52 AM, Steve5380 said:

Although TSMC is the largest source of advanced semiconductors in the world, it can be partially replaced,  and it is not in China but in Taiwan.  Intel is already investing tens of billions in new manufacturing facilities, although this takes time.

I think you rate the likes of Intel too highly... TSMC is about the only company at the moment who can comfortably manufacture semiconductors at the 5 nanometre node. Intel has been struggling for years to shrink their node-size, but failing. That is why the earlier advances in the i-Core chips have stalled, and they have been relying on adding more cores to their systems to get a bit of a speed boost. You may also say that TSMC is building a 5 nm FAB in the US, but by the time the first chips roll off the production in the US, TSMC will probably be manufacturing at the 3 nm node in Taiwan. Don't underestimate the impact of a war involving Taiwan will mean to how we live today. Semiconductors are literally in everything, not just our household goods. All it takes is for a few of the major FABs in Taiwan to be damaged or destroyed in a war, and we will probably have to kiss goodbye to any new iPhone, car, fridge, TV for the next 5-10 years. Not only that, it will hit commerce, as so much of banking and commerce now relies on a computing backbone. All those Cloud services may have to cut back on services, so even social media will be impacted. We are not talking about a simple belt-tightening, since all out war could result in all of the Taiwanese FABs to be destroyed/damaged. That would really set all our computing systems back, with no replacement parts or new systems.

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On 4/30/2022 at 10:29 AM, Why? said:

What would happen, according to your wish, would not happen at all.  The world recognised China will eventually, or even sooner, became the world super-power.  Greenback will fail to become the major international currency.  The America's sanctioning and seizing of Russian's assets,  in the wake of war, has put USA under scrutiny for not being a trusted partner to place all your precious assets.   The pandemic, the war in Russia, god knows for how long, will not only destroy Europe but also America businesses.  America has lost a crucial Russia   China has gained one. To survive, many people will look East for Hope and tightened their friendship with THE GREAT CHINA.  Taiwan will voluntarily submit to its motherland in order to survive.  America's voices in this part of the region, by then, is just a whimper in the jungle of wilderness.

 

I know it hurts your nationalistic feelings, but it is a reality you will face in your lifetime.  Remember to pop you sleeping pill, you are going to need it later.

Do you even realise that the working age population in China is already on a rapid decline? And that their population is aging even more rapidly than Japan? While the birth rate in the US is not high, it does make up for it in terms of migration. Not so with China. So, unless China seizes the opportunity in the next few years, it's power on the world stage is going to wane due to its shrinking population and economic might.

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On 4/30/2022 at 10:29 AM, Why? said:

What would happen, according to your wish, would not happen at all.  The world recognised China will eventually, or even sooner, became the world super-power.  Greenback will fail to become the major international currency.  The America's sanctioning and seizing of Russian's assets,  in the wake of war, has put USA under scrutiny for not being a trusted partner to place all your precious assets.   The pandemic, the war in Russia, god knows for how long, will not only destroy Europe but also America businesses.  America has lost a crucial Russia   China has gained one. To survive, many people will look East for Hope and tightened their friendship with THE GREAT CHINA.  Taiwan will voluntarily submit to its motherland in order to survive.  America's voices in this part of the region, by then, is just a whimper in the jungle of wilderness.

 

I know it hurts your nationalistic feelings, but it is a reality you will face in your lifetime.  Remember to pop you sleeping pill, you are going to need it later.

 

Exactly, that should be big warning signs to China and other autocratic, undemocratic regimes.

 

Your post reflects more a wish thinking than looking at reality in serious terms.

 

It will be seen whether China will really gain from the Russia downfall or whether China is just interested in fossil fuels, coal and other resources from Russia.

I assume the Russians would still prefer to buy a Mercedes Benz car instead of a Geely....same goes for a Gucci bag instead of a fake Chinese copy or a no name branded bag. I did not see the oligarchs from Russia buying yachts from China, but... 

 

Sure Russia may buy some local Chinese planes from pure local manufacturers...

but look that China is still heavily buying US and European planes, which leads me to the conclusion that their own manufacturing is not yet that advanced that it can compete.

 

 

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On 4/30/2022 at 1:57 PM, singalion said:

 

Sure you will always find such people...

There are also Americans who did not travel to certain parts of Eastern Europe the past 15 years because they thought it is still under Soviet control. haha

 

I had American colleagues, who, when sent on a trip over to Singapore (developing Asia), asked us whether they should pack bath towels, in case the hotels did not provide them!

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On 4/30/2022 at 12:11 PM, Why? said:

China will not provoke Taiwan unless America try to provoke China.  China has basic principle on when it will attack Taiwan, one of those if Taiwan declared independence or America's weaponry interference are the main reasons.  China is self-sufficient, militarily capable and thus do not need America to shower it with Goodwill (or lack of). The problem with Taiwan, and with America, cannot always be fully aligned with each other due to their 5-yearly election.  If either one president is pro or anti to the other country, there is no need for China to worry about reunification with Taiwan, by force, it will just come naturally in a matter of time.  

 

China is provoking Taiwan every day by intruding into their airspace.

They even hacked into Taiwan's air operation centres which caused flights grounded for plenty of hours.

 

Same as China is building military features around Taiwan's water zones...

 

Are you somehow updated with reports and recent news?

 

Why is the US sending ships near to Taiwan?

 

You should start to read media from out of China also.... if not you don't end up with too one sided views.

 

 

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On 4/30/2022 at 10:50 AM, Steve5380 said:

Since what you write is usually the diametrically opposite of reality, 

That is patently untrue - but typical of your mentality towards those who know considerably more about the history of Asia than you. Quit it and stick to the subject of Taiwan!

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On 4/30/2022 at 2:05 PM, sgmaven said:

I had American colleagues, who, when sent on a trip over to Singapore (developing Asia), asked us whether they should pack bath towels, in case the hotels did not provide them!

 

Eventually from their own experience with American hotel chains... 😂

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On 4/30/2022 at 1:08 PM, singalion said:

China is provoking Taiwan every day by intruding into their airspace.

There is nothing new about this, although the earlier earlier occasions go back to different times. China has not infrequently harassed Taiwan and achieved little if anything.

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On 4/30/2022 at 11:09 AM, Steve5380 said:

What would happen if, by request of Taiwan,  America installs a military base in Taiwan?  If this is legitimate and could happen,  would then China be able to invade Taiwan without attacking American forces and therefore precipitate a war?


 

 

I assume American military intelligence is already within Taiwan. And I assume the US has plans to operate in Taiwan if there is a requirement.

 

Hopefully, it will be managed better than the Libya military deployment. haha

But with this very extremely partisan Congress in the US, I m not sure, they won't fall into week long fights on how much the US should spend in monies for any military operation...

 

I find also you should act more to persuade in the US that this political rift within the US is not healthy for the future of the US.

One point I agree with "Why" while maybe he did not think that far in his post.

 

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Posted (edited)
On 4/30/2022 at 2:11 PM, InBangkok said:

There is nothing new about this, although the earlier earlier occasions go back to different times. China has not infrequently harassed Taiwan and achieved little if anything.

 

I was just pointing to facts that Why seems to deny.

Edited by singalion
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On 4/30/2022 at 1:58 PM, sgmaven said:

I think you rate the likes of Intel too highly... TSMC is about the only company at the moment who can comfortably manufacture semiconductors at the 5 nanometre node. Intel has been struggling for years to shrink their node-size, but failing. That is why the earlier advances in the i-Core chips have stalled, and they have been relying on adding more cores to their systems to get a bit of a speed boost. You may also say that TSMC is building a 5 nm FAB in the US, but by the time the first chips roll off the production in the US, TSMC will probably be manufacturing at the 3 nm node in Taiwan. Don't underestimate the impact of a war involving Taiwan will mean to how we live today. Semiconductors are literally in everything, not just our household goods. All it takes is for a few of the major FABs in Taiwan to be damaged or destroyed in a war, and we will probably have to kiss goodbye to any new iPhone, car, fridge, TV for the next 5-10 years. Not only that, it will hit commerce, as so much of banking and commerce now relies on a computing backbone. All those Cloud services may have to cut back on services, so even social media will be impacted. We are not talking about a simple belt-tightening, since all out war could result in all of the Taiwanese FABs to be destroyed/damaged. That would really set all our computing systems back, with no replacement parts or new systems.

 

Don't forget China might rely on same also...

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On 4/30/2022 at 1:08 PM, singalion said:

Eventually from their own experience with American hotel chains... 😂

I have arrived at quite a few 4- and 5-star US hotel chain hotels late in the evening. Keen for a beer or a whisky to relax before bed, I have found the in-room refrigerators absolutely empty! Is this because US travellers have a habit of stealing from them? I certainly heard from one hotel manager that the small vodka and whisky bottles had several times been opened, the alcohol consumed and then replaced with water and weak tea before the cap was replaced! I have never had an empty in-room refrigerator empty in either mainland China.

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On 4/30/2022 at 2:01 PM, sgmaven said:

Do you even realise that the working age population in China is already on a rapid decline? And that their population is aging even more rapidly than Japan? While the birth rate in the US is not high, it does make up for it in terms of migration. Not so with China. So, unless China seizes the opportunity in the next few years, it's power on the world stage is going to wane due to its shrinking population and economic might.

 

But decline in population might resolve some other issues, less food imports, less housing construction, less pressure on local manufacturing etc.

 

From my  work related knowledge the past 8 years there is a huge drive "out of China" .

Investors are looking a long already into other parts of the world. Even South America gained more manufacturing that was driven out of China.

The companies diversify their manufacturing locations, same as to reduce reliance on one country in their supply chain management.

 

Many companies at the moment can't even predict when shipments will be made out of China... (and it is not just due to lockdown decisions in China). All this makes China lesser and lesser a manufacturing hub.

 

Third is the discrimination of foreign owned investors to China. Foreign companies no longer accept this discrimination.

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On 4/30/2022 at 1:13 PM, singalion said:

I assume American military intelligence is already within Taiwan. And I assume the US has plans to operate in Taiwan if there is a requirement.

 

Hopefully, it will be managed better than the Libya military deployment. haha

But with this very extremely partisan Congress in the US, I m not sure, they won't fall into week long fights on how much the US should spend in monies for any military operation...

As to the former, I agree with you.

 

Regarding anything more belligerent, please remember that in the USA it is Congress that has the right to declare war - not the President. Mind you, speaking against my own comment, that did not stop the disastrous illegal wars in Laos and Cambodia started by the Presidents of the day, the CIA and the US armed forces without Congress authorisation. But then these wee very weak countries with almost zero defences.

 

As for today's partisan Congress, since they cannot agree that the January 6 2021 invasion of the Capital was a pre-organised armed riot or a simple visit by tourists, I cannot see any American Congress in the near to middle-distance future agreeing to war with China over Taiwan. Besides, if the USA is not going to go to war over Ukraine, it is certainly not going to go to war over China - unless China happened to do the unthinkable and invade the USA. It may well supply Taiwan with vastly more armaments. But it would never go to war.

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Posted (edited)
On 4/30/2022 at 2:17 PM, InBangkok said:

I have arrived at quite a few 4- and 5-star US hotel chain hotels late in the evening. Keen for a beer or a whisky to relax before bed, I have found the in-room refrigerators absolutely empty! Is this because US travellers have a habit of stealing from them? I certainly heard from one hotel manager that the small vodka and whisky bottles had several times been opened, the alcohol consumed and then replaced with water and weak tea before the cap was replaced! I have never had an empty in-room refrigerator empty in either mainland China.

 

I hope you weren't the one who gave that negative report to a fully halal (Shariah compliant) hotel in Shah Alam Malaysia, who was terribly disappointed that the mini bar did not contain any alcoholic drinks and that at the reception when he asked where he can get some booze, they looked at him as if they are going to call the police to arrest him directly...

 

I personally prefer the mini bars to be empty. Same as you travelling frequently , I had too many disputes on drinks missing at the mini bar and I never use the mini bar at all.

Once I nearly missed my flight because the receptionist insisted that I had emptied some bottles from the mini bar and it took more than an hour to get this settled. (While in some countries you never know whether receptionist staff wants to trick you to pay and they put it into their own wallet. )

 

I mostly buy something at a duty free and just bring to the hotel... (But do a check what is permitted and what not).

 

However, in Indonesia they asked me to open 6 bottles of sparkling water and Diet Coke at my suitcase, as they suspected I had filled it with alcohol... haha. I asked them whether it is haram to smell on the bottles.

to their surprise it was all sparkling ... but they didn't see the 1 bottle of whisky..somewhere next to the water bottles.  haha

 

But be aware if you are a gin aficionado bring your own Tonic water into China. it is very very difficult to find it within China.

 

 

Edited by singalion
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On 4/30/2022 at 1:01 PM, sgmaven said:

Do you even realise that the working age population in China is already on a rapid decline? And that their population is aging even more rapidly than Japan? While the birth rate in the US is not high, it does make up for it in terms of migration. Not so with China. So, unless China seizes the opportunity in the next few years, it's power on the world stage is going to wane due to its shrinking population and economic might.

There is an extremely simple reason for that - the thirty-year ban on having more than one child per family. That was specifically intended to result in a significant reduction in the overall population. Some families paid some sort of fine to allow them more than one child - but extremely few. That ban has now been lifted and three children per family are now allowed. Almost certainly that will level off the decline.

 

The reasons for the significant reduction in the birthrate is nowhere comparable with that of Japan and Singapore where the reduction in marriages, increased economic independence of young people and the acceptance of more casual relationships has risen But then declining birthrates are now true of many countries. The USA and Australia are two such countries. As more of the population become richer, the desire for more children in China will drop, but I cannot see that happening from quite a few decades.

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On 4/30/2022 at 1:28 PM, singalion said:

I hope you weren't the one who gave that negative report to a fully halal (Shariah compliant) hotel in Shah Alam Malaysia, who was terribly disappointed that the mini bar did not contain any alcoholic drinks and that at the reception when he asked where he can get some booze, they looked at him as if they are going to call the police to arrest him directly...

I did specifically state USA chain hotels and perhaps should have added I was referring specifically to hotels in the USA - not other countries.

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Posted (edited)
On 4/30/2022 at 2:42 PM, InBangkok said:

I did specifically state USA chain hotels and perhaps should have added I was referring specifically to hotels in the USA - not other countries.

 

It was meant  in a humoristic manner.

 

Yes I saw you were referring to the US.

 

The guy who made that complaint about this hotel in Shah Alam Malaysia was an Australian...and wrote to near to all booking websites his comment on that one hotel  ha ha...

It just bumped to my head when you wrote about empty mini bars in the US...

 

Edited by singalion
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On 4/30/2022 at 2:39 PM, InBangkok said:

There is an extremely simple reason for that - the thirty-year ban on having more than one child per family. That was specifically intended to result in a significant reduction in the overall population. Some families paid some sort of fine to allow them more than one child - but extremely few. That ban has now been lifted and three children per family are now allowed. Almost certainly that will level off the decline.

 

The reasons for the significant reduction in the birthrate is nowhere comparable with that of Japan and Singapore where the reduction in marriages, increased economic independence of young people and the acceptance of more casual relationships has risen But then declining birthrates are now true of many countries. The USA and Australia are two such countries. As more of the population become richer, the desire for more children in China will drop, but I cannot see that happening from quite a few decades.

 

But China relaxed the rule on one child per family...

Maybe they fear the population will shrink below India's,...

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On 4/30/2022 at 2:15 PM, singalion said:

 

Don't forget China might rely on same also...

No doubt that China also relies on Taiwanese semiconductor technology. Hence Taiwan has what is called the Silicon Shield.

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On 4/30/2022 at 1:52 PM, singalion said:

 

But China relaxed the rule on one child per family...

Maybe they fear the population will shrink below India's,...

Is that not precisely what I wrote?

 

On 4/30/2022 at 1:39 PM, InBangkok said:

That ban has now been lifted and three children per family are now allowed.

 

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